
I've got three more things for you tonight. First, a few amendments to our Regional recap from yesterday, then some pictures from yesterday, and finally, a look ahead to next weekends Sectional.
Regional comments & AwardsIn our rush to video blog, and our excitement at using markers on a white board, we left out some details on the Regional race. So I want to throw out a few comments.
Austin Bradford gets congratulations for running the race we've been waiting for from him, one where he held on to a quick early pace all the way to the finish. We knew it'd come, and if he can reproduce it, or exceed it, next week, then the timing was perfect. You guys are getting rested, and should be set to make next week your best race yet. For his race, Austin surprisingly gets his first ever
Metronome Award.
Nick Piper had an excellent first race back after missing a couple weeks worth of races. It's sometimes rough to step back in after a break and race near your best, but Nick showed he's only just behind where he left off, and should be set next weekend to get back to where he was before. This makes him a perfect recipient of the
Rocky Award.
Coach Zehr gets a shoutout as well for the awesome job he's doing as a coach. As I sorted the pictures to put online, I was amazed how many of the pictures he was in the background of. This guy is all over the place encouraging you guys and giving advice. Though he got cropped out of many of the pictures I put online, the picture up top gives an idea. He gets our
Morale Rooster for the week.
Nick Steffen gets the
Punisher Award because, frankly anybody who can kick like that deserves it. One day, we'll have to have him and Alex Blunier jog 2.9 miles, and then see who can run the last 0.1 the fastest.

On a related note, the
Photo Finish Award goes to Hannah Behle for the excellent display of determination shown in the final few hundred meters, and what seemed like another race of moving up the field in the last mile.
More Pictures:Here's the link to the rest of the pictures for those who want them.
Featured is a guest appearance by Nathan Young.
Dav

e was really wanting a duplication of the
long red train from last year (
see picture). I thought that it didn't happen, but lo and behold, we have this picture, The Long Red Train 2.0, featuring 3 of the same 4 runners, and taken in almost exactly the same place. It's too bad he hates the camera and we can't get Zeller to line up for a long red train picture once. Anyway, there you go Dave, Christmas came early for you this year.

Also, I saw in this picture something I've never noticed before. If you want to know how to finish in the top 5 of a race, the key is to have your right leg on the ground, and your left leg in the air. It's so simple, why hadn't I thought of it before?
Also of interest in these pictures are all the athletes looking at the camera while racing. The undisputed queen, however, is Nicole Lockwood. I think in every third picture she's in, she's staring straight at the camera.
Sectional Preview
Finally, here's the updated and detailed Guys Sectional Preview I've been promising for a while. I was hoping after seeing the Regional results, things might be clear, but alas, things were very confusing. It seemed the only thing we learned for sure is that Galesburg, led by Gabe Moreno, is, in fact, a strong contender for a State spot, something we thought before, but didn't know.
After that, it's hard to know what to think. First of all the times were screwy and slow. I assume the other Regionals had similar weather and conditions to what you did. At the Galesburg Regional, times were probably 50-60 seconds slower than expected on a 3.0 mile course, which is only partly explained by the 3.04 mile course. Dunlap needed a tiebreaker to beat Geneseo and was only a few spots ahead of Dixon, which was surprising. I would tend to think that Dunlap may have been taking it somewhat easy, knowing they would qualify comfortably, but am not sure. Dixon and Geneseo may be stronger than expected, though I'm going to go with my gut and say Dunlap was resting.
At the Peoria Regional, the top ten or so guys raced fairly quickly, as expected, but after that the race seemed slow. As a result, the Normal Regional looked comparatively quick, and some of the teams in the Peoria Regional look weaker than they really are. Metamora had good races from Rauh and Van Fossen, but their last 5 guys, including Kamm, averaged 36 seconds slower than at Mid-Illini on the same course (where by the way, their 4th-7th all ran big breakout races if you hadn't noticed).
East Peoria had everyone slower than expected with the exception of Gonzales, their usual #3, and I'd have to think they were taking it easy. Richwoods was close behind EP, but it's my feeling that they just don't have as much, and were probably not resting as much as EP was.
The Sandwich Regional is tough to know anything about, since we don't know the course or any of those teams really. Mike Gaydos of Sandwich won convincingly in 16:30, and Yorkville won the meet with 34 points over 64 for second place Oswego. I have to assume that course was running a little slow as well, but really am just making an educated assumption. Yorkville and Gaydos are the only teams or individuals that will likely factor at the Sectional, and I think Yorkville won't be much of a factor.
I have a spreadsheet where I've copied in results of all the teams that I think will factor in the Sectional, plus the handful of individuals that have a chance of making State. I've done some wizardly math and think I have a pretty good idea of what teams will be there, and you know what? It looks almost the same as what I said a month ago.
First I ran the numbers based on Regional performances and was very surprised how far down EP, Richwoods and Metamora were, and so then I made some adjustments for where I think things will be when those teams are at their best and not resting.
As you can see, my methodology isn't perfect, but there's no perfect way to do this. Any way I run it, I get the same thing basically: two teams out front, another seven teams fighting for 3 spots, and a few more teams that might pick off some of those teams and finish in the top 10, but aren't likely to qualify.
1. Normal (University) - Won Bloomington Regional convincingly and is likely one of the top 2-3 teams in Class 2A. Led by two possible All-Staters, there's only one team in the Sectional that can challenge them.
2. Peoria (Notre Dame) - Led by individual Sectional and State title contender, CJ Elward, this group is backed by a strong pack with 3 guys under 16 minutes, and all their scorers under 16:15. Might challenge Normal (University), but probably can't quite beat them.
(I debated whether to rank these next teams, or just list them as the 'Big Group of Seven.' I decided to rank them, but remember that these teams can be very close , and I'm just as likely to be off by four spots as by one. I think of these seven teams, Galesburg and Metamora stand a pretty strong chance, but even assuming I'm right on that, it's just that much harder to pick among 5 teams for the last spot. All these predictions are based on each team running their best race. A bad race would knock them out of contention to qualify and could even quickly throw them out of the top 10)
3. Galesburg - They seem to be rounding into shape quickly, and have a history as a team, and have several runners with experience in the big postseason meets. They soundly won their regional, and even if Dunlap was taking it really easy, Galesburg likely still would have matched them. Gabe Moreno has slowly worked back to his best form, and showed it with a solid win yesterday.
4. Metamora - Also rounding into shape at the end of the season. Stephan Rauh is a strong, consistent #1 and Van Fossen seems to be in good post season shape as the Sectional nears. Kamm and their next guys are inconsistent and didn't run fast last week, but if they run their best race, their top 4 are very strong. The question is, are they hurting? Or did Gene let Ryan and Stephan go hard last week and reigned the others in? If they run like they did at the Regional, they might not go. If they run like they did at Mid-Illini, they should be in good shape.
5. Morton - Alright, I'm biased, but I think if you guys run your best race, you'll make it. After a few scary weeks, you showed you're healthy and ready to roll just like the first half of the season. Zelller and Domnick are very consistent, Nick's coming back nicely from an injury, and Austin appears to improving at just the right time. Nathan should be a clutch performer as he's rested, and the Getzen are always clutch at the end of the season, so we're not too worried about Dan after missing a couple of races. Anyone remember Peoria? Yeah, that's right. And to top it all off, seventh man Andrew Young is knocking on the door of breaking 17 minutes. I've never seen a seventh Potter so quick.
6. Dunlap - Led by Johnny Crain, they have a strong front man, and a strong 1-4, but their 5th looked much worse at Regional. I'm not sure what to make of that. If they run like they did at Mid-Illlini, then they will be very tough, and could qualify. This is probably the biggest threat to Morton. Dunlap appears to narrowly beat EP. The one time we've seen EP line everything up, at Mid-Illini, Dunlap nipped them, and I expect something similar this time.
7. East Peoria - I do think they were taking it easy yesterday, and have much more in the tank. However, they're just not quite as strong as Morton on their best day, with Andrew Young beating their 5th man in the duel a few weeks ago. The potential to do that is why I say Morton's best race will beat EPs. Who knows though, they'll have a home course advantage and might have some dirty tricks as well. Never run over a big pile of leaves on these guys' course, as it may be a hidden pit filled with water.
8. Dixon - These guys have a strong front man in Zach Payne who beat Johnny Crain at Galesburg, but fall off a bit after that. They appear to have the guns to put them into the top 8-10 teams, but probably not into a state spot. One can't say for sure, though. If Dixon has a great race, and a few other teams falter, they could sneak in and grab that fifth spot. Last year, they timed things well and suprised everyone by stealing a state title they were not favored to win. This year, they have looked better and better as the season goes, and I would not count them out.
9. Geneseo - Geneseo has a nice, tight pack, though their #4 guy is sometimes inconsistent and finishes back of their regular #5. We'll have to assume they'll have all 5 ready next week, and if so, they've often put their 5 guys within 25 seconds of each other. At Woodruff, their spread from 1-5 was 16:20-16:42. That looks tight, but their pack is about 20 seconds too slow, and I just haven't seen them improving all year. By this point in the season, all the contenders have a 5th man around 16:40-45, but their front man is faster than 16:20. Geneseo narrowly beat Dixon at Galesburg, on the strength of their #2, #3, and #4 man, but I see Dixon peaking and taking them time.
10. Richwoods - Led by Thomas Harayda, these guys are a good team, but I just don't think they're quite good enough. I would not at all be surprised to see them pick off a few teams, and finish in the top 7 or top 8, but don't think they have any chance of finishing in the top 5.
11. Bloomington - You saw them Saturday. They're a good team, but probably not a state qualifying team. Their #1 and #2 guys might be individual qualifiers though.
12. Mahomet Seymour - Same as Bloomington. They're good, but not good enough. They had a tight pack and no standout individuals, so I don't see anyone from this team at Detweiller on November 7th. Any of their guys anyway. Their girls will likely be there.
13. Yorkville - we haven't seen them, but from results I'd say they're very similar to Mahomet Seymour.
14. Rock Island - the best of the rest.
15. Oswego - Second to Yorkville at Sandwich, they might beat Rock Island, but will not likely be further up than that.
16. Rantoul - At this point, I'm just guessing at where to place the slower teams.
17. Dekalb
18. Washington
19. New Lenox (Lincoln-Way West)
20. Sandwich
So that's what I've got for the teams. Here's how I see individuals. You've got a few guys who stand out as likely top 5 (and almost assuredly top 10), and a large group after that who could be top 20.
1. Elward (Peoria Notre Dame) - last spings 2A 3200 champ, Elward has run 14:52 this season, and I don't think anyone else has broken 15:20. I think he's a very strong favorite and could have a bad race and still win.
2. Rutherford (Normal University) - Looked good all season, and looked very comfortable and in control at the Regional (sorry Joe).
3. Moreno (Galesburg) - an All-Stater last year, he's rounding into shape after a rough early season and a Regional victory over Crain and Payne (that rhymes!) shows he's near the top.
4. Rauh (Metamora) - Strong all season and apparently peaking well. I believe he ran a PR at the Regional, despite potentially slow conditions.
5. Crain (Dunlap) - Running well at the end of the season, outkicking Rauh at Mid-Illini. Only 3rd at the Regional, though I suspect he was resting.
6. Clay (Normal University) - a 15:09 guy last year, he struggled early, but you saw him at the regional. He's at least most of the way back. I'm putting him 5th or 6th based on a rough early season, but who knows, he could give CJ a fight if he's at his very best.
After that, I'm going to throw out, not necessarily in any particular order, a big group of names who will probably be fighting for top 20 spots. Since the team battle is so up in the air, several of these guys will have an individual spot in mind, even though they're on contending teams. This list is not necessarily comprehensive.
Payne (Dixon)
Van Fossen (Metamora)
Kamm (Metamora)
Zeller (Morton)
Eades (East Peoria)
Gill (East Peoria)
Parlette (Normal University)
Ward(Normal University)
Meyer (Bloomington)
Birkel (Peoria Notre Dame) (both of them)
Wynn ( Peoria Notre Dame)
Landis (Sterling)
Morse (Limestone)
Harayda (Richwoods)
Link (Galesburg)
Gaydos (Sandwich)
Sigwalt (Geneseo)
The individual qualifiers will likely come from this group of guys, probably whichever ones are on teams that don't make it. From my team predictions earlier (Normal U, PND, Galesburg, Metamora and Morton qualifying), that means our likely individual qualifiers are:
Crain (Dunlap)
Payne (Dixon)
Eades (East Peoria)
Meyer (Bloomington
Landis (Sterling)
Morse (Limestone)
Harayda (Richwoods)
Gill (East Peoria)
Gaydos (Sandwich)
Sigwalt (Geneseo)
So to qualify, you guys have to run your best race, and it'll be a dogfight where every spot counts. It'll likely be a Mid-Illini battle between Morton, Dunlap and East Peoria. Remember, every opponent you can pass helps your score against that team by two points, and against every other team by one point. The little things will make a difference, like surging on corners. Know the course. Don't let yourself get into the mental trap of running to the mile mark and then relaxing. Run through the mile mark, and be amazed how many of your competitors back off once they have their split.
Look over the competitors, think about how you've raced them in the past, know what you have to do going in, but also be prepared to race if things don't go as you expect. Know the colors of the uniforms that matter. Dixon is some variation of purple and white I believe. Geneseo is green and white. You should already know all the others. To help you guys know the competition, here's a
link to a version of my spreadsheet with results for all the teams that matter. You don't get to see the one with my wizardly math:)
Wrapping it upFinally, I'm going to leave you with one more photo. I know you guys were probably thinking, "is he really sticking that stupid camera into our huddle?", but I rather like the photo. No matter what happens Saturday, remember the journey and the friendships. There will never be another 2009 Morton Potter XC Team.
Oh, and what did Dale find so funny?