Just in the past few days, the IHSA has released the Sectional and Regional assignments for the 2009 State Cross Country Series. That makes now the perfect time to start really looking at the competition the Potters will face at these meets. The Potter men have stated as one of their goals to qualify for the State Cross Country Championships at Detweiller Park on November 7th. It is my understanding that they would become the first Morton team to accomplish this feat since the program began. They would definitely be the first to qualify in decades.
And the Potter men have been off to a great start this season. They are currently undefeated in duels, and have amassed a winning record against some of the best teams in the area, such as Richwoods, Metamora, Dunlap and East Peoria. Some of these teams they have beaten 3 or 4 times. And other teams have taken notice. Yet strangely some of these competitors still write the Potters off, and are not convinced that they will be there at the end of the season.
And to some degree, these detractors may have a point. Several of the teams that Morton has defeated have a history of peaking very well for the end of the season, while Morton may not have that history. It would be foolish to underestimate Metamora, Dunlap, East Peoria, or Richwoods just because they've been beaten before. These teams will come on strong. But we know some things about this Potter team that the other guys don't:
- The Morton men did not set out to win the Dunlap Invitational, they set out to run in the State Meet. They may be happy, but they are not yet satisfied.
- On average, the Morton varsity runners probably ran about twice the mileage they did last summer. This strength will allow them to withstand longer workouts and a longer season.
- The Morton men are doing workouts of a significantly higher quality and higher volume than in years past.
- The Morton men, led by Coach Zehr, are timing their peak well, as they are still keeping the miles high and are just now starting to get into the lung-searing interval work, the kind of workouts you don't know if you can finish until you actually do it.
- The Morton men have not been growing complacent as they have racked up impressive victories and performances, but are rather growing confident.
- The Morton men are not discouraged by the words of their naysayers, rather they are angered. (At least Nathan Smith is, anyway.)
- Several of the handsome Creators - well at least Steve Gifford and Dave Getz - would be willing to don a Potter jersey and step in should one of the men become injured.
Set
But alas, even though the Potters are ranked in the top 15 AA teams in the state (by DyestatIL), merely qualifying won't be an easy task as there will likely be 10 ranked teams in the Potters' East Peoria Sectional....fighting for 5 qualifying spots. There will be several very good teams left behind. Indeed, running that Sectional and qualifying will likely be the toughest race many of these teams run all year. Those naysayers on the PJStar forums may have gotten a few things right when they said this:
Places 3-7 will be separated by less than 20 points....3-5 by 10 points.
The good news of the announcements are that it looks like the Regionals won't be terribly difficult. While I don't know all of the teams that will be in the Normal Regional, it is very likely that only one team will be able to beat the Potters, and only two others are close enough to even make them work hard. All that for 5 spots. There are only two teams in the Regional (Lincoln and Pontiac) that are completely unknown to me, and the Potters will likely see how they stack up against Lincoln this weekend at the Springfield Invite. So unless Morton is intent on challenging Normal (University) for the Regional title, they will have no reason to leave their best race in Normal, but can save it for East Peoria.
Spike!
So now it's time. I will now list all the teams that have the possibility of qualifying for that East Peoria Sectional, and rank them according to their performances to date, and according to what I think we can expect of them in the future. Some of these teams we know little about, other than having reviewed some of their results in some big invites, and some of them we know quite well. Luckily most of the teams that will be in the mix are of the latter variety. I'll make some notes on the top teams, the one that I think will matter. The teams after that have little chance of factoring near the top of the Sectional, and many won't even qualify.
Also, this sport is one of ongoing education, and as we learn more about the different teams in the next 3-4 weeks, I will update these rankings and notes. Some of these rankings are based on only one or two results so far. Oh, and the teams I know nothing about, I threw down in the bottom of the rankings with question marks. As we learn more throughout the season, we'll figure out where they likely stand. So here goes:
- Normal (University) - This is the top team, no doubt. They are very strong 1-5, and have a solid 6th as well, so they can afford a bad race. If top man James Clay returns to the form he showed last year, they could be one of the top 2-3 teams in the state. Even without him, they will be in solid contention to win the Sectional.
- Peoria (Notre Dame) - This is definitely the next best team. CJ Elward is very strong and will contend to win the Sectional. After that, they have a strong 2 and 3 and then a gap to a strong 4 and 5. Their #5 is probably as good as any other teams, save Normal (University). They have a gap to the 6th man so will not be as strong with a bad race, but they could probably lose any of their top 5 save Elward, and still be almost a lock to qualify. Notre Dame has a strong tradition of running their best races as a team when it matters.
- Morton - This teams strength is in their pack. They don't have an Elward or Clay, but still a strong front runner in Zeller, with the other guys not far behind. Where this team stands out though, is that their 5th man is probably better than all the teams ranked behind them, with a rapidly improving 6th man. These guys will be the key to defeating less balanced teams such as Metamora. These guys have probably been the most consistent of the 3rd-9th ranked teams.
- Dunlap - This team was not very far behind Morton at Dunlap. They have a strong frontrunner in John(nie) Crain, whose strength will help more in the larger, denser field of the Sectional meet. They have 2-3 more guys who can mix it up with Morton's pack, but are a little weaker on the 5th man. This team is dangerous as they almost always improve late.
- Richwoods - A very dangerous team. They were very strong through 4 guys at several meets, but did not have a 5th or 6th man. Should not be taken lightly though, as it seems they often run a slightly different lineup at different meets and might have a strong 5-6 guys who just haven't all run hard at the same time yet. Harayda makes a decent front runner, followed by a pack that is very comparable to Mortons. The question is whether that pack is 4 deep or 5.
- East Peoria - This appears to be a fairly balanced team. They have several strong runners but no all stars. Their 4th and 5th man do not appear to match Morton's, but this team is another one that usually shows at the end of the season. You'd think from watching these guys that Tim Broe might know a thing or two about running. The question marks are Eades and Gill. What Eades will we see at the end of the season, the one he has the potential to be, or the struggling Eades? Also, will Hugh Gill return by seasons end, as some are assuming, and what kind of form will he be in if he does return? The answers to these questions could make the crucial difference between 5th and 6th
- Metamora - This team might have the best 1-3 punch of any of the teams in this regional, but so far have not had the depth to back it up. This team is yet another one that often runs well at the later, important meets, but I just don't think they have the guns this year. We'll see. It's a likely outcome that if they don't qualify as a team, they may take 2-3 of the individual qualifying spots.
- Galesburg - A very inconsistent team, which is the main reason I put them this low, but I'm not sure that's a mistake. They have a solid man in Gabe Moreno who hasn't raced often or looked great, but could be a major factor if he returns to previous form. Beyond that they have 5 guys under 17 minutes and 2-3 that could likely flirt with 16. Their roster is largely comprised of 800 and 1600 meter men who seem to be inconsistent. If this team is on full strength, they could jump up several spots and contend for a spot, but if they're not, they probably won't be very close.
- Geneseo - A similar team to Richwoods, but without as strong a front runner, and I have no reason to think they have a 5th man, but don't know for sure. Their top 4 are very close, and right in the thick of Morton's pack. However they currently have a huge gap to their 5th man. If they have a strong man that they've been hiding to fill that #5 spot, or someone who's rapidly improving, they could factor. With only 4 men though, they'll probably be about 9th.
- Yorkville - not very far behind Geneseo at Woodruff
- Mahomet Seymour - the few results I've seen they don't look that great, but Dyestat has them ranked, so I threw them a few spots higher than I might have otherwise.
- Rock Island - decent 1-3. An improvement in 4 and 5 could see them improve but probably still be way outside the battle.
- Dixon - last year's State Champion must have graduated a lot of guys as they don't look likely to even qualify this year
- Bloomington
- Dekalb
- Sterling
- Limestone
- Oswego
- Washington
- New Lenox (Lincoln-Way West) - why are they even here?
- Rantoul
- Joliet (Catholic Academy)
- Peoria(Woodruff)
- Streator
- Ottawa
- ??Lincoln
- ??Peoria (Central)
- ??Pontiac
- ??Lasalle/Peru
- ??Morris
- ??Sandwich
As far as individuals go...well that's all up in the air. The individual qualifying race will change dramatically based on what teams qualify. It's very likely that whatever teams finish in 6th and 7th will send an athlete or two. That said, I have to say that Tyler Morse of Limestone is the only athlete I know of who looks to have a very good shot at making it, who's not on a team with a shot as well. However, since my rankings have East Peoria and Metamora missing the cut as well, I have to give a spot to Stephan Rauh of Metamora. Van Fossen of Metamora, and Eades and perhaps also Gill of East Peoria would have a shot as well. I won't venture to say any more than that, because their are a lot of individual guys I just don't know, and we don't know for sure yet which teams won't make it.
So that's how I see it. As the season progresses, especially after Peoria Invitational, we'll update this and try and get a closer picture. One thing I can guarantee is that 3rd through 7th will be very tight, and that even as we get closer, my predictions will probably be wrong. To see Dyestats ranking of the top teams in the state, and the Sectional rankings (similar to mine, but not identical), click here. The one advantage to being in such a tough Sectional is that whatever teams make it are almost guaranteed to not finish in the last 5 spots or so at State:) Actually many teams that do qualify may place higher than their ranking, as some ranked teams will be left behind.
So remember Potters, the key to winning is to get 5 in front of other teams 4th, and to use your 6th and 7th to bump that 5th man. If you do that, and have your front 3 guys mix it up where they belong you'll be very hard to beat. Remember that every spot counts at Sectional, and that every time you pass someone on a competing team, you just swung the score by two points, not just one.
Woodruff, we'll miss ye.
In other news, District 150 voted to close Woodruff High School the other day. It remains to be seen what this means for the Woodruff Invitational. Hopefully someone can keep it going, even if they have to change the name. It would be a shame to see that meet go, as it is one of the major anchor points of the whole season, for teams throughout the state.
Bye now
That's all for now. We'll update this list in a few weeks. Just remember, the fight is only half over.
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