Who wants beat Metamora?

This summary is for how the men can beat Metemora. I'll get my thoughts up on the girls Tuesday competition  before I go to bed Sunday night. I promise.  I won't be able to make it to tomorrow's race in PORTA, so I wish you all the best of luck and enjoy your first road trip this season.

Let's do it

So, men, I say "you can beat Metamora". You look at me and say "they beat us all 3 times we've seen them this year. Are you crazy?" And I respond, "Yes, I am a little crazy. But that doesn't mean I'm not right!" So let's have a look at some of those different races, shall we, and what we can do to change them.

First of all, Metamora's got 2 strong front runners. Their top 2 have beaten our top 2 in every race so far, usually by margins of greater than 30 seconds. So while anything is possible, I don't suggest formulating a strategy based on beating them man for man, because beating their top 2 guys is unlikely on Tuesday.

Your strength lies in your depth.  Now in those later spots, Metamora's deep too. Your depth is very comparable as you guys have traded spots with them in many races. At Galesburg, for instance, you had 6 in before their 6th. Where they beat you was having 4 guys in front of your 2nd.

But then at Woodruff, you had four guys in before their 4th, and 6 in before their 5th. That's right, 6 in before their 5th (that's the key to beating them, but I'll get to that later). And your 7th was only 2 seconds away from putting 7 in before their 5th.  They only beat you guys 26-30 in dual scoring. And you know what? For whatever reason, that was probably Jared's worst race so far this year. 

If you place Jared up near Joe's placing, where he's been in the more recent races (and should be on Tuesday), you would have tied them 28-28. And in a tie, you go to the 6th man, which means you would have beat them.  Don't believe me? Check the results and run the numbers yourself. Jared Marks has shown in the past two weeks that he can run at the front of the team, so I basically just proved that it's possible to beat Metamora.  That proof might not hold up in geometry class, but it's true nonetheless

Now, at the Dunlap Invite, things were a bit worse, for two reasons. First of all, Metamora's 3rd and 4th men had great races, beating Joe and Jared by a few spots. Another team putting 4 in front of your 1st is impossible to overcome. To make matters worse, Morton was running a man down, as Eric Meyer is normally one of your scorers, and was absent that day.  Metamora creamed you.  I mention this so that you realize how tight it can be, and how things can swing one way or another really easily.

So how do you make sure this is one of the days where you run well against them? Well, here's a few suggestions.  Hopefully none of them go against what Coach Zehr is telling you. If they do, listen to him, he's your coach.

• You need to put your top 2 in front of their 3rd. It HAS to be done. Joe has beaten their 3rd man 2 of the 3 times you've faced them (and was not far behind him the 3rd time), and Jared has shown he can run with Joe.  You have to do this to have a chance. If they put 3 or 4 guys at the front of the race, you're not going to beat them. If Joe or Jared (or anyone who wants to step up) can break up their top two, all the better, but they've both got to beat Metamora's #3 at the very least.
• You have to get at least 3 more guys in front of their 4th. You were close it at Woodruff, where Eric, Dale and Nick all beat their 4th man, and Jared almost did. Dale beat their 4th man by 4 seconds. And you know what? Dale's been beaten by Austin this season. And Nathan has finished within 1 second of Dale.  You guys are all close.  So that means you have 7 guys, including Jared and Joe, who could potentially beat their 4th man on the right day. It is crucial to get your 5th man in front of their 4th. If they take the top 2 spots, it's basically the only way you can win. Remember, if you manage to win this, it'll likely only be by a point or two, so every spot counts.
• You have to get your 6th man in front of their 5th. This will inflate their score, and is the only way to counteract the low sticks their front runners will likely provide.  7 is better, but you HAVE to get 6 in front of their 5th.  Once again, I've shown that's possible. Not easy, but it's possible. You've done it before. You had a 7th guy within 2 seconds of their 5th at Woodruff. 2 seconds is possible.
  

That's it. If you can manage those things, you'll beat them. Let's look at 3 likely best case scenarios.

1. Metamora gets 1, 2, 5, 9, 11, 13, and 14. This gets them 28 points. Morton gets 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, and 12. This gets them 28 points. Morton's 6th man (10th), beats theirs (13th). Morton wins the tie.
2. Metamora gets 1, 2, 5, 9, 12, 13, and 14. This gets them 29 points. Morton gets 3, 4, 6, 7, 8, 10, and 11. This gets them 28 points. Morton takes Metamora by 1 point.
3. Metamora gets 1, 2, 5, 8, 12, 13, and 14. This gets them 28 points. Morton gets 3, 4, 6, 7, 9, 10, and 11. This gets them 29. Metamora takes you by 1 point.

So you see, you have to get that 5th man in front of their 4th again. Any other way likely just won't work. You also notice the key to victory is in the pack. Joe and Jared can't win the race for you, but your 5th and 6th man can.  Everyone needs to do their part, and everyone is as important to a team effort as everyone else. Many people often say that the 5th man is the most important on the team, but in a super close race, like we hope this will be, all 7 are important.

Now you may be saying "wait a minute, Woodruff was a nasty day, maybe they were just off that day or whatever." 

I respond in two ways "first of all, Woodruff was just as nasty for you as it was for them. Second of all, you don't think you have an advantage on Tuesday???!! 'Cause you do. You've got three that I can think of right now!"

• Metamora knows they've beat you all 3 times. They probably don't realize how close things can be. They'll come in overconfident and expecting that a B-level effort could win the race. You have surpise on your hands.
• You're a better team than you were before. You guys are showing improvement every time out. Your positions are constantly changing and you never know who's going to have a breakout race.  Especially if you learn to run as a pack and use each other, you'll be extra formidable in ways you weren't earlier.
• You have a homecourse advantage.  USE IT!!

Let's break down those last two points, in reverse order. You guys have a rough course. No doubt about it. It's constantly changing direction, the terrain changes, there's a nasty hill you do twice, and a few smaller ones, you have several turns where you can't see very far ahead, and IT'S EASY FOR VISITORS TO GET LOST.

Now I'm not suggesting we have volunteers misdirect the other teams. That's dirty pool and I don't roll that way.  But approaching every corner, at least the first time around, Metamora's guys are going to be thinking "ok...I think I go right here...but I'm not sure...what's that Morton guy doing? Is that volunteer pointing me to the right or talking on her cell phone?"  You guys will be going around that course with the confidence that you know exactly where every corner is. What's more, you know which hill's hurt the most, how long that hill on the trail lasts (coming out of the prairie grass section), and you should know the best line around all the corners. Use these things, because the opposition won't know the course as well as you, especially on the first lap.

You have corners where if you have a small lead, you're out of sight for a few seconds. Surge on those corners. It'll help to 'break' someone who's chasing you if they regain sight of you and find you've put another 10 meters on them.  Know where to position yourself; when you want to be on the right side of the path to get ready for the next corner, and when you want to be on the left. Run the tangents as well, which means running the straightest path that follows the course. I noticed at Washington that many of you guys were running kind of wider paths than necessary, while Limestone's guys were not. Every second counts.

There's a good chance that Metamora will hang back a little and not force the pace the first lap. They've started conservatively in several of their races so far, and they might try to have you 'give them a tour' the first lap. Don't let them. If they hang back and run slowly, run just off their shoulder, but don't show them where to go, unless you think you're ready to take a big lead. Running 5 meters in front is just showing them around. We should have volunteers to point at the corners, but it's not your job to show them. It's your job to beat them.  If they do run this way, be ready because when the second lap comes, or maybe late in the first lap, they're going to ratchet up the pace. Be ready for it.

The second thing is to RUN TOGETHER. The best teams always have guys running together, and if you've had a chance to watch Metamora, you'd notice that they often pair up for the first 2 miles or so.  You guys have often finished near each other, but are not quite running as a team yet.  

Joe and Jared, you keep finishing close, but I've never seen you run side by side for more than a few meters. It's too bad because you've got running styles that could complement each other. Joe is very good at managing pace and effort over the first 2 miles and ratcheting it up over the last 1/2 to 3/4 while Jared's very good at being aggressive and closing the last quarter mile, but is often not as strong in the middle. Run together and use each other. Use Joe's pacing the first two miles, and use Jared's late aggressiveness.  It's much easier to run hard with a teammate by your side, and it's much harder for an opponent to try and run down 2 Potters than 1.  I know you guys may have a bit of a rivalry going and you each want to be top Potter on Tuesday, but who are you trying to beat? Each other? Or Metamora? When it comes time to separate over that last 3/4 or so of a mile, then go as hard as you can, but make sure your teammate's with you and as ready as possible when you get to that 2 mile mark.

The next 5 guys, the same thing goes for you.  You guys have changed your order up more frequently than a game of musicial ibexii (thanks Dave).  If you work together, you'll have a greater chance of putting that 5th man in front of Metamora's 4th, and getting your 6th in front of their 7th.  Nick, Dale, Eric, Nathan and Austin, you guys can all do this if you work together. Get together as a group, and take turns leading and setting the pace. Don't count on one teammate to lead you through all the way. Protect each other. Don't let Metamora or Pekin steal those good lines around the corners, or whatever other dirty pool they might try to pull (back in my day, Pekin guys always raced dirty). Do what you can to ensure you arrive at that 2 mile mark together and ready to rumble with their guys.  In the latter half of the race, if your group splinters, try to pair off. Don't fall back for someone else in the last half mile of a race, but if 2 of you are faltering, use each other, and make sure to beat their 5th man.

Nathan posted a week or so ago about running so that you know that you have raced.  This is that opportunity. This isn't a big invite with some strangers where your goal is simply to finish as far up the field as possible. This is a direct, man-to-man competition between the top 2 teams in the Mid-Illini!  This is cross-country! Don't walk away from that race knowing that you could have done something more than you did.  You'll kick yourself for it....especially if the team loses by one or two points.

Now, who knows, Metamora may have a better race than they've had all year an seal the deal no matter how well you race. They're a good team for a reason, and they have a savvy, experienced coach.  They've been a better team than you all season and their best race may beat your best race. But you're getting better and if you run your best race on Tuesday, it might beat the race they run on Tuesday. If you don't triump, you want to be able to go home that night knowing that you - and your teammates - gave your all against a team that's beat you 3 times this season.  You'll be a stronger person for it, you'll have learned more about your sport, and you'll be more prepared next year.

That's right, next year. We're thinking that far ahead and it's one of the things we're excited about with this team. You guys have only one senior in your top 10.  If you guys put in the work over next summer, you could come back next fall stronger than ever. Wouldn't it be nice if this time next year, Metamora is sitting around trying to figurie out how to eke out every single point they can against you? So who wants to be on that top 7 next year?

Winning won't be easy, but the best goals to set are the hard ones that you think you might be able to reach, but you just don't know for sure. Who wants to try for something they already know they can do?  You already know you can lose to Metamora, let's see if you can beat them!